French Elections First Round: Key Takeaways
Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen have won the first round of the French Presidential elections. Opinion polls are now forecasting a significant victory for Macron in the run-off (on 7th May). Macron has a track record as a reformer and is a European enthusiast so this first round result is likely to be market friendly.
Reflation Trade Under Pressure, but Fundamentals still Supportive
The reflation narrative is still alive even though we are reaching a more mature phase. The Eurozone and Japan are in an earlier stage and should benefit from a more benign fiscal and monetary stance. The outlook for Emerging Markets is also improving, led by India and China. The improving global outlook supports a positive view on equities globally, with DMs and Europe in particular favoured vs EMs. Bonds remain exposed to rising rates and therefore require a flexible approach to manage rates sensitivity and search for opportunities across sectors and maturities.